Posts by Kaity

With November election political campaigning in full swing, it seems like EVERYTHING is being characterized as a crisis these days. Border Crisis. Ukraine Crisis. Covid Crisis. Climate Crisis. Crime Crisis. Homelessness Crisis. Fentanyl Crisis. Inflation Crisis.  Economic Crisis. These are a few of the things being characterized as a crisis in the current climate.  Some…

Below are US stock market returns for the week just past. The Dow managed to make a gain for the week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes headed further into bear market territory. As we head into the second week of quarterly earnings season, it is clear the market is processing two dominant factors…

Equity Markets were up last week with a strong rally after a period of selling pressure. Nonetheless, there is still considerable uncertainty with respect to inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings. Relative to market drawdowns of the more recent past, we have been saying this one has the potential to be much more protracted. Consequently,…

Why was the market down at the end of June? It seemed like it was going to rally back up. Markets ended their two-week rally in June after the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their March 3 estimate of the US real GDP growth for Q1, updating the estimate to -1.6% annually (-0.4% growth for…

After sharp equity market declines this year, many market observers are of the belief that the stock market is now “fairly valued.” We hear it all the time. Some people even say that the market is cheap. Usually, people who espouse this view are referencing the price today compared to the forecasted earnings in twelve…

Several weeks ago, we wrote a piece called “Money Heaven.” In it, we considered how money is created and destroyed. To recap, money is destroyed via two primary mechanisms: 1) Asset Devaluation, and 2) Inflation. We also discussed the root cause of inflation being a monetary phenomenon made worse in the present day by supply…

The Fed meets again this week to determine its policy track with respect to interest rates and its balance sheet. What is clearer, heading into this week’s meeting than it has been before prior meetings, is that the inflation problem is WAY WORSE than the Fed has acknowledged up to this point. Inflation is not…

We’ve been writing a lot this year about girding oneself for heightened uncertainty, heightened volatility, and market returns far below what many of us are accustomed to. This year has certainly provided a good measure of those PLUS additional doses of geopolitical conflict and supply chain problems just to round out the financial anxiety. As…

This phrase captures an idea developed over the course of many years of collective institutional investment management experience during challenging performance periods not dissimilar to what we are experiencing today. The principle we are espousing is that doing nothing is not the same as thoughtfully doing nothing. It isn’t meant to be dismissive or snarky;…

We’ve all heard the phrase, “Talk is cheap.” Lately, Fed chair Jerome Powell has been giving inflation fighting a great deal of “lip service.” “What we need to see,” Powell said, “is clear and convincing evidence that inflation pressures are abating, and inflation is coming down. And if we don’t see that, then we’ll have…

Stocks were mixed last week as the market narrative remains the same. Namely, the market is grappling with an increasingly hawkish Fed. It is a relatively quiet week ahead for macro-economic and corporate earnings announcements as the market continues to digest the implications of continuing high inflation. At this juncture, there seems to be broad-based…