Leaning Into Q4
It looks like winter is upon us. For those of you not in the Omaha area, the first snowfall of the year occurred this past Friday. With about 45 days left in 2021, the markets are entering into a seasonally strong period. Historically, people have attributed the good market returns to the ‘Santa Claus Rally’–…
Investor Mailbag: Inflation
What does it mean that the Fed is going to start tapering? To keep the economy humming smoothly, the Fed has been practicing Quantitative Easing—providing liquidity to the market by purchasing $120B in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities each month. The Fed announced that they would commence their tapering operations, reducing purchases by $15B per…
October Recap
After a September pull-back, risk assets resumed their upward trajectory in October, with several equity indices recording record highs at month-end. Bonds posted losses in the quarter as interest rates moved up in response to continuing inflationary pressures. October 2021 Capital Market Returns The magnitude of these moves over one month is large. The rise…
New Kid on the Block[Chain]
Mark Twain is often attributed the adage, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but often rhymes.” Wise words that have been reinforced again in the financial world. I read an article recently that spoke of a hamster, one Mr. Goxx, who has outperformed both Warren Buffett, and the market by investing in various cryptocurrencies. This reminds me…
Third Quarter 2021: Market Commentary and Analysis
While US equity markets made all-time highs during the quarter; a September pullback erased gains and left markets flat-to-down for the quarter. Bonds provided no reprieve, also selling off in the quarter as rates ticked up in response to inflationary pressures. 3rd Quarter 2021 Capital Market Returns Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate -0.80%…
Evergrande Cheat Sheet
Evergrande Cheat Sheet Financial Markets had one of the worst days in months and also saw the VIX cresting just over 25. While many issues are percolating such as Delta variant fears, the Fed’s tapering to start later this year, friction around the US debt ceiling, and overall concerns of an overheated equity market,…
Bulls Vs Bears: Where We Are & Where We Might Go
Join CIO, Erik Ogard, CFA, and Steve Wruble in this month’s Bulls Vs. Bears: Market Commentary as they discuss current market trends, how markets have been historically, and where they might lead in the future.
September Blues
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Non-Farm Payroll number on Friday indicating the US added an estimated 235k jobs in September, much less than the consensus forecast of 733k. While areas such as private education and warehouses saw notable increases in employment, retail sales saw a contraction in jobs mostly in the hospitality and…
With the End of Summer Ahead
The S&P 500 index rose 1.5% last week in a rally that sent the market benchmark above the 4,500 level for the first time as investors were relieved by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that they interpreted as a sign the central bank isn’t rushing to begin tapering its bond buying stimulus program. The S&P…
“Investment Errors” with Erik Ogard, CFA®
My investment career began over thirty years ago. I have spent time on both the retail side and the institutional side of the business. Now I find myself in a position of leadership providing investment guidance and advice to Registered Investment Advisors and their clients. For many years, I have been contemplating the topic of…
Historical Perspective and Realistic Expectations
Investors have become somewhat complacent over the last decade as supportive government policies have led to strong stock market returns. Not only have investors become accustomed to strong positive returns with minimal drawdowns, but they are also largely unaware of what kinds of expectations might be reasonable. This is evidenced by the mania around recent…
Pre-Turkey Day Market Recap
Stocks ended last week weighed by growing concerns over nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe which pressured US stocks, oil, and the broader market. The markets were unsettled to start this week as the Austrian government announced a full lockdown starting on Monday, in response to cases of COVID-19 surging in Europe. The lockdown will include…