Our Market Commentary

Join The WealthPlan team as we explore topics around investments, practice management, advisor technology, and more.

WPG - 2023.05.01 - Another Bank Seizure - Square

Another Bank Seizure While Markets Yawn

May 1, 2023   First Republic Bank was seized by the Fed and taken over by JP Morgan this past weekend.   JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon made a statement stating, “this part of the cycle is behind us.” While Dimon’s remarks were meant to sooth, and the market is up today, it is hard…

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A Big Week for Corporate Earnings

  April 24, 2023   This week, approximately 2,500 publicly traded companies will report Q1 earnings, and some will provide forward guidance. Given the heightened concerns about the potential for an economic recession, this is a pivotal time for earnings because this quarter, more than any other in recent memory, will indicate the likely depth…

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ChatGPT: The Future is Upon Us NOW!

April 17, 2023 Author’s note: everything below that appears in italics in this research note was generated by ChatGPT. This entire exercise was completed in about one minute! It seems fair to say this part of my job (writing commentary) could be replaced by ChatGPT.   ChatGPT, as a large language model based on the…

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Positive Indicators for Prospective Inflation

  April 10, 2023   Inflation has been with us for over two years and a central focus of the Fed since March of 2022. We have held the view that inflation is mostly a monetary phenomenon, meaning that excess money supply has been the primary cause of inflation.   Thus, we’ve seen the Fed’s…

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Mixed Messages: A Review of the First Quarter 2023

  April 3, 2023   There were many eye-grabbing headlines related to the economy and capital markets in the first quarter. We continue to face uncertainty in the inflation outlook. The Fed’s rhetoric continues to be hawkish as it views inflationary pressures as the most significant threat to the economy and prosperity currently. Thus, during…

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Did We Just Have a Banking Crisis?

  A mere three weeks ago we were confronting a run on Silicon Valley Bank followed by a bank bailout orchestrated by the FDIC, the US Treasury, and the Fed. The official response was swift and robust. The Fed opened the discount window, member banks took advantage of the liquidity, banks across the country took…

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The Shape of Things to Come

March 20th, 2023 What is a Treasury yield curve and why does it matter? There’s been a lot of attention from economic pundits and the financial press on the so-called “yield curve inversion” as an indicator of impending recession. Many people don’t know what the yield curve is and why inversion matters. The picture is…

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SVB Bank and US Depositor Risk

News headlines about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are everywhere. At this stage, speculation is rampant as to whether this will be an isolated event or whether other banks will experience similar challenges. Moreover, it is unclear whether this will lead to fallout in other industries for SVB’s depositors. The uncertainty is high…

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A Fresh Look at Money Supply

The economy in the broadest sense is a complex system of multiple inputs, outputs, and interactions between millions of variables and independent agents. As such, it can be a difficult thing to grasp, let alone predict. Nonetheless, economists and professional investors attempt to make predictions about the direction and magnitude of various aspects of the…

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Two Inflation Prints and Earnings Expectations

Last week we had two inflation prints: one for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and one for the Producer Price Index (PPI). While the headline grabber was that the monthly prints were above expectations (and they were) the Fed is nonetheless making considerable progress in its inflation fight as evidenced by both the CPI and…

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Climbing the Wall of Worry

February 13th, 2023 Markets were down last week, taking a break from a run that has been strong so far this year. Investors are somewhat baffled by the market’s rise this year, given the economic and corporate earnings backdrop. It seems to many that the market’s trajectory is totally divorced from economic reality. Many wonder,…

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What’s the S&P Worth?

The rally in stocks so far this year has been impressive. Here are the year-to-date returns for broad market averages through February 3, 2023: Nasdaq Index 14.77%, S&P 500 Index 7.86%, and Dow Jones Industrial average 5.40%. The hotly debated question is: at what level “should” stocks be trading given the Fed’s ongoing inflation battle,…