Things Are Looking Up
Eighty percent of S&P 500 Index companies have now reported earnings for the third quarter and things are looking constructive from a corporate earnings perspective. According to FactSet, earnings are up year over year for the first time since 3rd quarter 2022—by over 3%. The stock market this week reflected this rosy earnings report,…
Inflation, Interest, and Investing with Erik Ogard
CIO Erik Ogard recently sat down with financial advisor Wayne Wagner Jr., of Vizionary Wealth Management to discuss investment questions like: Portfolio construction Labor unions Housing market dynamics The impact of rising interest rates Join us as we explore alternative investment strategies, analyze the performance of different asset classes, and provide valuable insights into how…
Market Valuations and Big Cap Tech
At the midway point of this current earnings season, FactSet has reported that both earnings and revenue are up over 2% from a year ago. This resumed growth lends credence to arguments that—after a shallow earnings recession—corporate earnings growth has resumed. We will be monitoring earnings as they come in over the next couple of weeks but…
Earnings in Focus
Approximately 2,300 publicly traded companies will report earnings this week. As such, it is a big week for earnings and by the end of it, we should have a good read on the overall tenor of earnings for the quarter ended September 30th. This is a pivotal quarter because the aggregated analyst estimates for…
A Fed Balance Sheet Primer: One Trillion Down… Six to Go?
Below is a picture of the Fed Balance sheet. These are the assets held on the Fed Balance Sheet. This is the economic tool the Fed started using as a policy tool during the Great Financial Crisis. The balance sheet amounts to a mechanism through which the Fed can add or subtract liquidity (i.e.,…
The AI Goldrush
The Generative AI ERA is upon us. With Microsoft Corporation’s acquisition of OpenAI and the company’s ChatGPT Generative AI language model then being infused into Microsoft’s software suite this year, an AI competitive race has begun. Companies and solutions that harness AI and introduce large scale efficiency and productivity into the economic landscape are…
Befuddling Markets So Far This Year
In years like 2023 that are marked by excessively narrow returns (only a handful of stocks are driving broad index returns) it can be helpful for people to understand the market undercurrents…. particularly for those who hold the stocks that have not participated in the rally. First, let’s consider the third quarter 2023. Here’s…
The US Federal Financial House: A Sobering Reality
This week we are taking the opportunity to examine the financial well-being of the US Federal Government. Considering Fitch’s recent downgrade on the financial rating of the US government as well as the upcoming potential for yet another government shutdown due to the ridiculous political process through which the US government is funded, this…
Some Longer-Term Perspective
It’s easy to get caught up in the short-term market action. What happened to stock markets this week? Are earnings better or worse than expected? Are we headed into recession? It is presently an admittedly interesting time with the economic uncertainty about inflation, recession, and the Fed’s tightening policies. Also, we have the fervor…
Inflation Readings This Week
Below are the inflation readings through the end of June, 2023. The blue line represents the year-over-year change in consumer prices while the red line represents the change in producer prices (commodities). One can see progress has been made on the inflationary front since the Fed began its tightening campaign in March of 2022…
A Market Pullback or Something More?
Here’s a chart below of the S&P 500 Index (in yellow), the NASDAQ Composite Index (in purple) and the Bloomberg Aggregate US Bond index (in blue) since the end of June. At the midway point of the third quarter and after most companies have reported earnings, the capital markets are retracing some of their…
U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade by Moody’s
We wrote about the U.S. financial situation a few weeks ago. We have been concerned about total U.S. debt levels, the cost of servicing that debt as interest rates rise, continued and ballooning deficit spending, and the percentage of total tax revenues used to cover interest expenses. The reality is things are not good.…