Keeping Score
Today the United States of America again witnessed a peaceful transition of power from one presidential administration to another. This transition, which has been operational since George Washington left office and John Adams assumed office in 1797, is another example of American Exceptionalism. All Americans should be proud of this tradition. Many pundits give 100%…
A Sputter to Start the Year
So far in January 2025, the U.S. stock market has experienced a choppy start. The S&P 500 has seen a slight decline of about -0.90% year-to-date according to Y charts. This dip comes after a strong end to 2024, with investors adjusting expectations considering new economic data and policy developments. Large-cap stocks have been under…
Year-End Financial Planning Tips: A Comprehensive Guide for 2024
As the calendar year winds down, it’s an opportune time to reflect on your financial health and strategize for the year ahead. The end of 2024 presents unique opportunities to optimize your financial standing, whether you’re looking to save on taxes, bolster your retirement plans, or simply ensure your financial goals are on track. Here…
Bond Market Perspectives
The past four years represent some of the most challenging years ever for bond investors. Consider the following information and chart from y-charts: Bonds were down in 2021 for the first time in a decade, receding -1.5%. The next year, in 2022, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index lost over -13%, its worst year in…
Tariff Talk
Understanding the Uncertainties in Trump’s Tariff Proposals Which Countries Will Be Targeted? We expect that countries like Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan might be in the crosshairs, with China likely being a primary focus due to existing tensions. However, without specific details, we’re unsure how this will play out with our trading allies. Which…
Will we get a year-end rally?
Historical Context and Market Trends This commentary aims to provide a formal analysis of the potential market movements as we approach the close of the trading year, advocating for a balanced investment strategy that considers both the opportunities for gains and the risks of market corrections. Historically, equity markets have shown a propensity for positive…
A New Political Regime Brings Economic Optimism
Last week, Donald Trump won the US presidential election and the stock market responded by reaching all-time highs. Not only did Trump win the White House, but it appears his fellow republicans will enjoy majorities in both the House and the Senate. This is interpreted by many as a mandate for change and certainly opens…
Gravity Again: Earnings and Leading Economic Indicators
The third quarter earnings season is almost complete. About 100 companies will report this week, which will mostly complete the reporting season. We don’t expect there to be any meaningful moves away from the trends established in the prior weeks. Thus, it looks like we will complete earnings season with positive quarter over quarter earnings…
Why Valuation Matters – GRAVITY
Those who have spent time reading these weekly notes over the past few years are aware that when valuations become extended, we advise people to lower their return expectations and prepare for potential volatility. The last time we directly communicated the specific data that we are going to update in today’s note was at the…
Earnings in and Valuation Levels Focus
We are early in the third quarter corporate earnings reporting cycle. As of now, about 14% of corporations have reported earnings. As we consider the continuing corporate releases, we note the following earnings context from FactSet: “Of the 14% of companies in the S&P that have reported, 79% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which…
Stock Market at All-Time Highs
Major US Stock market indices are hitting all time highs, which is making some investors nervous. Here’s a look at the S&P 500 Index below: We do understand that continuing to invest in stocks during such times might make some investors nervous ─ because they believe the market is bound to correct or pull back…
The Bond Conumdrum
It is not “new” news that bond investments have been challenged over the past several years. But many may not appreciate the nuances of these challenges including the depth, duration, and ultimate cause of them. So, let’s get into it. Below is a chart of Blackrock’s iShares AGG ETF, which tracks the performance of the…