Some Longer-Term Perspective
It’s easy to get caught up in the short-term market action. What happened to stock markets this week? Are earnings better or worse than expected? Are we headed into recession? It is presently an admittedly interesting time with the economic uncertainty about inflation, recession, and the Fed’s tightening policies. Also, we have the fervor…
Inflation Readings This Week
Below are the inflation readings through the end of June, 2023. The blue line represents the year-over-year change in consumer prices while the red line represents the change in producer prices (commodities). One can see progress has been made on the inflationary front since the Fed began its tightening campaign in March of 2022…
A Market Pullback or Something More?
Here’s a chart below of the S&P 500 Index (in yellow), the NASDAQ Composite Index (in purple) and the Bloomberg Aggregate US Bond index (in blue) since the end of June. At the midway point of the third quarter and after most companies have reported earnings, the capital markets are retracing some of their…
The Return of The Money Market Fund
Over the past year and a half, the return potential of the capital markets has dramatically shifted. At the start of 2022, interest rates were essentially zero. At that time, investors could not make any meaningful interest-based returns in bank savings accounts, US government bonds, municipal bonds, or money market funds. To make any…
Half Full or Half Empty?
With 84% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported earnings, according to Factset, we now have a good idea about how second quarter earnings will come in. While 79% of those companies have beaten earnings estimates, it is important to know two things: 1) Those earnings estimates have been systematically reduced in the preceding months,…
The Goldilocks Outcome: The Relationship Between Money Supply, Output and Inflation
August 1, 2023 Let’s do some careful and thoughtful inquiry into the relationship between money supply and key economic data. First, let’s isolate the money supply and see what the rate of change from the prior year over time has been, beginning in 1980. Here’s what it looks like: One can see…
An Earnings Quick Take
July 25, 2023 As we noted last week, we are in the second quarter earnings reporting season. So far, according to FactSet, 18% of S&P 500 Index companies have reported. While the majority are reporting positive revenue and earnings surprises. But before becoming too ebullient, please keep in mind these surprises are coming in…
It’s Now Really All About Earnings
Below is a graph of two data series going back thirty years. The first series in blue is the S&P 500 Index level valued on the left-hand axis. The second series in orange is the S&P 500 Index earnings valued on the right-hand axis. The relationship between stock prices and their earnings is well…
2023 Mid-Year: A Poster Child for Index-Aware Investing & Eschewing Market Timing
July 10, 2023 At the beginning of 2023, there was a lot of pessimism included in market expectations on the heels of a bad 2022 for investors, which included the worst rout on record for bonds and a steep drawdown in equities. This pessimism was not unwarranted: inflation was still a major problem, corporate earnings…
A Macroeconomic Check-In
June 26, 2023 Macroeconomic conditions usually provide excellent context for understanding the earnings picture for stocks. However, lately, there has been a lot of uncertainty about how the macro-economic picture is likely to unfold and how it is affecting the corporate earnings outlook. Mixed messages with maximum uncertainty is a decent way to describe…
An Extremely Narrow Market
June 19, 2023 There has been a great deal of attention paid to the so-called narrow market in 2023 by market observers, and for good reason. Before showing you our take on the degree of narrowness present in the equity market, we think it’s important to describe what it is, and why it…
The US Federal Financial House: A Sobering Reality
This week we are taking the opportunity to examine the financial well-being of the US Federal Government. Considering Fitch’s recent downgrade on the financial rating of the US government as well as the upcoming potential for yet another government shutdown due to the ridiculous political process through which the US government is funded, this…