Our Market Commentary

Join The WealthPlan team as we explore topics around investments, practice management, advisor technology, and more.

WPG - 2023.08.01 - SQUARE

The Goldilocks Outcome: The Relationship Between Money Supply, Output and Inflation

August 1, 2023   Let’s do some careful and thoughtful inquiry into the relationship between money supply and key economic data. First, let’s isolate the money supply and see what the rate of change from the prior year over time has been, beginning in 1980. Here’s what it looks like:     One can see…

WPG - 2023.07.25 - An Earnings Quick Take SQUARE

An Earnings Quick Take

July 25, 2023   As we noted last week, we are in the second quarter earnings reporting season. So far, according to FactSet, 18% of S&P 500 Index companies have reported. While the majority are reporting positive revenue and earnings surprises. But before becoming too ebullient, please keep in mind these surprises are coming in…

WPG - 2023.07.17 - Weekly Note - It's All About Earnings Now SQUARE

It’s Now Really All About Earnings

  Below is a graph of two data series going back thirty years. The first series in blue is the S&P 500 Index level valued on the left-hand axis. The second series in orange is the S&P 500 Index earnings valued on the right-hand axis. The relationship between stock prices and their earnings is well…

WPG - 2023.07.10 - Weekly Note - A Poster Child for Investing first principals SQUARE

2023 Mid-Year: A Poster Child for Index-Aware Investing & Eschewing Market Timing

July 10, 2023 At the beginning of 2023, there was a lot of pessimism included in market expectations on the heels of a bad 2022 for investors, which included the worst rout on record for bonds and a steep drawdown in equities. This pessimism was not unwarranted: inflation was still a major problem, corporate earnings…

WPG - 2023.06.26 - A Macroeconomic Check-in SQUARE

A Macroeconomic Check-In

June 26, 2023   Macroeconomic conditions usually provide excellent context for understanding the earnings picture for stocks. However, lately, there has been a lot of uncertainty about how the macro-economic picture is likely to unfold and how it is affecting the corporate earnings outlook. Mixed messages with maximum uncertainty is a decent way to describe…

WPG - 23.06.19 - An Extremely Narow Market SQUARE

An Extremely Narrow Market

  June 19, 2023   There has been a great deal of attention paid to the so-called narrow market in 2023 by market observers, and for good reason. Before showing you our take on the degree of narrowness present in the equity market, we think it’s important to describe what it is, and why it…

WPG - 2023.06.12 - SQUARE - Is this a new bull market

A New Bull Market?

  June 12, 2023 There have been several high-profile pronouncements that the stock market has begun a new bull market. Our view is that while this may be true, it is yet too soon to draw that conclusion with high conviction. First let’s look at the chart below. There are some positives, no doubt. But…

WPG - 2023.06.05 - SQUARE

Buy and Hold Investing: The Why and The How

June 5, 2023 Great Companies and the Power of Doing Nothing! Over 30 years ago, I entered the investment business after a two-year stint in graduate school. During these formative years, I developed a list of companies I thought were great growth opportunities based on their business models, brands, and competitive advantages. What follows is…

WPG - 2023.05.22 - Weekly Note - Square - Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze

Risk and Return: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

  May 22, 2023   Below is a series of plots for the S&P 500 Index relating risk and return over three year “look back” periods beginning in 1990. Each dot represents the relationship between risk (the x axis) and return (the y axis) over a three-year period. As we roll through time, we add…

WPG - 2023.05.15 - Weekly Note - Square - The inflation threat is receding

The Inflation Threat is Receding

  May 15, 2023   We had two important inflation releases last week for inflation data through April. Looking at inflation expressed as a percentage change from a year ago, we can see inflation readings receding.   The red line depicts the Consumer Price Index, and the blue line shows the Producer Price Index (commodities).…

WPG - 2023.05.08 - Square - Inflation Readings This Week

Inflation Readings This Week

May 8, 2023   The stock market has been range-bound for the better part of two years. Here’s a picture below of the index going back three years. The S&P 500 Index today is trading at a level achieved about two years ago on its way to its all-time high. But, since reaching that high,…

WPG - 2023.05.01 - Another Bank Seizure - Square

Another Bank Seizure While Markets Yawn

May 1, 2023   First Republic Bank was seized by the Fed and taken over by JP Morgan this past weekend.   JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon made a statement stating, “this part of the cycle is behind us.” While Dimon’s remarks were meant to sooth, and the market is up today, it is hard…